Private firms poised to benefit from questions surrounding government economic data gathering
- Erin Caddell
- Sep 9
- 4 min read
Recent controversy surrounding the U.S. government’s aggregator of economics data has shone a spotlight on privately held firms that gather comparable information. Private economic data-collection firms are likely to enjoy policy-driven tailwinds amidst a period of questioning of the validity of government statistics and pressure on federal spending, regardless of what comes next.
Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEnterfer in August after a monthly employment report announced downward revisions of U.S. jobs created in May and June of more than 250,000, plus a less-than-expected reading of 73,000 new jobs in July (BLS reported September 5th that 22,000 jobs had been created in August, adding modest revisions to the figures for the prior two months). Trump claimed that the July numbers were “rigged” to undermine him. It’s not the first time BLS has come under scrutiny from the Administration and the GOP. In February 2024, a BLS economist gave a small group of financial services firms information about how the agency compiles inflation data, sparking concerns about preferential disclosures. The same year, BLS twice released data at the wrong times. Adding fuel to the fire, BLS officials have spoken about a fall in survey response rates as technology has made individuals more wary of outreach from contacts they do not know. The incidents left BLS open to criticism by Trump, who claims the agency was producing rosy reports of job growth, only to revise the figures downward later to boost the Biden-Harris campaign (ironically the same pattern that led to McEnterfer’s firing, in neither case backed by supporting evidence).
Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a Trump loyalist, chief economist of the conservative Heritage Foundation and a BLS critic, to replace McEnterfer as the next Commissioner. Antoni has suggested that if confirmed he may suspend release of the monthly employment report to check its methodology. Antoni’s nomination has been widely criticized by economists on both the left and right, with detractors arguing he is unqualified since he has never worked in government. In comparison, his predecessor spent 20 years at the Census Bureau and Treasury Department prior to being appointed to the role. Critics have argued further that an overtly partisan Commissioner could undermine public perception of BLS data. The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee is expected to schedule a confirmation hearing for Antoni in the coming weeks.
Private economic data-collection firms have an opportunity to benefit, regardless of Antoni’s fate. If Antoni is confirmed, analysts will seek checks on BLS’ data for signs of political bias. If he is rejected, the agency will face months without a confirmed head, creating another roadblock for the already struggling bureau. Regardless of who is named head, any sustained run of nominal job gains or losses of any magnitude as reported could draw further ire from Trump, adding further pressure on BLS and increased demand for third-party data sources. Additionally, the next BLS Commissioner will have to reckon with lower funding and staffing. The Department of Labor (which houses BLS) has recommended to Congress the agency’s budget be cut by 8% in fiscal 2026, with staffing projected to decline to an 11-year low (shown below), though this recommendation is subject to Congressional approval.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Congressional Appropriation and Headcount
Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Note: F26E represents DOL’s recommendation to Congress.
Who to Watch
Now that the private sector may be able to meaningfully fill gaps in employment data, we’re watching key players who are positioned to leverage the opportunity. Several firms have emerged in recent years to supplement government economic data, including LinkUp, PriceStats and Yipidata, as well as industry veterans ADP and Manpower.
LinkUp uses data sent directly by companies as well as publicly available information to provide analysis of national and local employment trends. LinkUp was acquired in November 2024 by GlobalData, a publicly traded UK-based firm (London stock ticker DATA). Lightcast provides a similar service, and last year was acquired by KKR. In the inflation arena, PriceStats is a self-funded firm founded in 2011, which uses public information to generate daily inflation reports in the U.S. and 24 other countries. Similarly, Yipitdata uses automated scans of millions of websites to assess changes in consumer behavior; Yipitdata raised $475m from Carlyle in 2021. Numerator is a startup that uses online surveys to help companies assess perceptions of their products and brands with consumers. While not exact parallels to BLS, these kinds of companies are well poised to reposition their businesses and more directly capture employment data.
The best-known alternative to the BLS is a monthly report produced by payroll administrator ADP. Similarly, staffing firm Manpower Group produces a quarterly survey on staffing trends in the U.S. and several other countries. While these data sets are less comprehensive than BLS’ there is an immense opportunity for ADP or Manpower to expand their data collection capabilities - and charge for the service - given the turmoil at BLS.
Historically, the federal government’s dominant place as the provider of U.S. economic data has made the notion of private-sector replacements seem woefully inadequate to investors and the C-Suite alike. Yet as with many developments in Trump’s second term, wishing for a “return to normal” is just that – a wish. The credibility of government economic data will continue to be questioned, while funding and staffing pressures persist.
Opportunity knocks - will the private sector answer?
