Trump 2.0: What Have Companies and Investors Learned So Far?

Trump’s second term as U.S. president has unfurled with all the force his most ardent supporters hoped for – and his political opponents warned against – when he ran for president a third time. Trump and his team have turned to unconventional means to execute their agenda, from a record pace of executive orders to new methods to redirect funds appropriated by Congress. The result has been a cacophony of ‘he-did-what?’-style headlines.

As such, with nine months having passed, we wanted to step back and assess three key themes that have emerged from our work with clients navigating Trump 2.0:

1. Private sector steps in as feds step back

The federal government, Trump and his supporters argue, has spent too much money, suppressed innovation, and promulgated left-wing ideology – justifying his Administration’s urgent and unconventional actions. Critics respond that Trump did little to cut spending in his first term, and that spending has continued to rise in his second. But there is no question that Trump’s second term has marked a sea of change in thinking about the role of the public sector, with private-sector involvement often seen as the solution. Anchor has written about this shift with regards to economic data collection and mortgage finance. Similar analyses could be made of everything from scientific research to student loans.

Our takeaway: Leaders ought to be on their front foot in thinking through how their company and industry can complement or replace functions handled by the government. The Administration regularly signals its openness to such ideas and is unlikely to change its desired path to cut spending over the next three years.

2. The public-private balance is disrupted

In many ways, Trump 2.0 has been favorable to business as regulations are relaxed and business tax breaks have been preserved. Yet Trump’s second term has by no means been easy environment for Corporate America. For every company or leader lauded by the White House, another is criticized for its prices, practices or even logo. The selective nature of Trump’s dealmaking means all but the largest and best-connected companies cannot be certain how they might be treated by the Administration.

Our takeaway: In looking back over Trump’s second term so far, we find the positives for business have outweighed the potential risks. The courts, financial markets and Congress have combined to act as material checks on the elements of Trump’s agenda most destabilizing to businesses. That said, tensions between Trump’s use of disruption as a tool to gain leverage and the corporate community’s desire for certainty will likely define the remaining years of Trump’s term for businesses.

3. Plan for now – while considering what comes next

The news cycle around Trump 2.0 can seem all-consuming. The pace of developments is so rapid and the overthrow of long-held policy norms so common that getting one’s mind around White House updates takes a great deal of effort.

Yet for all its break-the-mold exterior, the Trump Administration faces many of the same political realities of any U.S. presidency. In just over a year, all seats of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for re-election. In the House, Republicans hold a 219-213 majority (with three vacancies), among the smallest in history. Republicans hold a similarly slim margin in the Senate. Midyear elections are often viewed as proxies for the incumbent president, and polls have consistently suggested Trump’s approval rating has seen a modest but steady decline. In fact, RealClearPolitics estimates that Trump’s approval rating has fallen 5% from his inauguration to now, dipping to 45%.

Our takeaway: Just as U.S. policy has shifted radically with Trump back in office, so it could change again if the House or (likely) the Senate flip next year. Democrat control of either chamber would free committee chairs to launch investigations into numerous Administration actions and gum up Trump’s process for rapid change. Further, both parties will turn to campaigning for the next presidential election following the 2026 midterms.

Thus companies and their leaders must consider the durability as well as the impact of a given Trump policy. Is it the result of an executive order that can be reversed by a Democrat or  Republican with an agenda different than Trump’s? How might the new executive powers Trump has claimed, from expanded tariff authority to intervening in private companies, be utilized by a Democrat president to unwind actions of Trump and his GOP allies in this term?

The current moment feels like it is all Trump, all the time. But this too will change, as all things in politics and policy do.