UK Council Election Analysis and Look-Ahead

This memo was produced by Anchor Advisors and the firm's UK-based partner, GK Strategy.

UK Election Results

The dust has settled after last week’s seismic set of local and devolved elections across England, Scotland and Wales. Voters abandoned the established parties in droves, turning instead to populist alternatives. Reform UK and the Greens were the big winners in England, gaining 1,451 and 441 seats, respectively (out of approximately 5,000 total council seats). Labour lost over 1,400 council seats of the roughly 2,500 it was defending in England and lost councils like Tameside and Birmingham for the first time in a generation. After decades in power, the party came third in Wales – usually a shining light for Labour in previously challenging local elections. This is very much the writing of history in real time as populist parties enjoy success on a scale not seen before. Other established parties fared little better. The Conservatives lost almost half the seats they were defending, many of which were last contested during the fallout from the Partygate scandal under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats made only modest gains in areas where they are already strong, like southwest London. With nationalist leaders in the three devolved capitals, and populist parties now here to stay, the message to the Prime Minister was unmistakable: voters are losing patience with the political status quo.

State of Play

On the morning of May 11th, the Prime Minister gave a speech designed to convince those within his own party that he is still the leader they need. It was another speech characteristically laden with rhetoric about values, strengthening EU ties, and putting an end to the incrementalism of the last 20 years, with little to show for it. Many in Westminster were not expecting this speech to meaningfully shift the dial. If anything, reactions from Labour MPs suggest it may have made things worse, and the risk for No.10 is that the success of this latest reset is measured in weeks rather than months.

What Happens Next

Most of the debate now moves on to how PM Starmer will respond to the challengers in his party. Former Foreign Office minister Catherine West was among the first to publicly call for a conversation about the party’s future leadership, having initially indicated she would seek to trigger a leadership election, but is now understood to be canvassing support within the Parliamentary Labour Party for a clearer succession timeline. This aligns with figures on the soft left – including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh – who are seeking to delay an election and chart a route back to Westminster for the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. For now, however, the Prime Minister is insisting he is going nowhere. That leaves attention focused on Health Secretary Wes Streeting. His team and preparations have been ready to mobilise for some time, but Streeting is cautious about acting as the first mover to challenge the Prime Minister. Unless events accelerate dramatically over the next 24 hours, the machinery of government will continue to move on. That will come as a relief to No.10, at least for now. The next major moment will be the King’s Speech on May 13th, where the government will set out its legislative agenda for the coming parliamentary session (the speech is delivered by the King but written by the government). It also offers the Prime Minister a chance to shift the conversation away from internal party management and back onto policy and its offer to the electorate. Many Labour MPs who have not declared their skepticism are likely to reserve judgement until then. The tone of the debate that follows, and the willingness of MPs to publicly rally behind the government, should tell us far more about the Prime Minister’s political standing within the Parliamentary Labour Party.